I Am Not Ashamed: Thoughts on the Sandusky Scandal

In August 2007 I auditioned for the Penn State Blue Band. I barely made the cut.

For the next four years I had the honor of representing The Pennsylvania State University at numerous sporting events including three bowl games, a trip to Ohio State, and the basketball team's NCAA tournament appearance in Tucson.

Each time I put on the uniform I did so with pride and honor. Whether it was marching down University Drive on the way to Beaver Stadium or in Pasadena for the 2009 Rose Bowl, spectators cheered for the band and what we represented.  Even after losing to USC in the Rose Bowl, many Trojan fans told us how much they respected Penn State and the Blue Band.

Needless to say, I am shocked at the despicable actions alleged at members of the Penn State administration. If true, Curley and Schultz should be severely punished for covering-up such heinous actions. However, it is a shame that they have already been crucified in the court of public opinion. The media, nor many in the public seem to remember or care that our judicial system prides itself on the mantra "innocent until proven guilty."

We should all demand answers but do it in a professional and civil way that reflects well on the university. In the heat of the moment we all jump to conclusions and let emotions control our thoughts and words. Only reasoned logic and a thorough review of the facts will lead us to the final conclusions that will emerge in the future.

While public opinion of Penn State will no doubt suffer in the coming weeks, months, and years, we must unite as a university to show the world that We Are better than these few men. The actions of a few do not define the greatness that is Penn State.

From the philanthropy of THON to the fervor of our sports fans, Penn State touches the lives of millions of people across the earth. It is these events and experiences that do not make me ashamed to be a Penn State alum. I will continue to wear my Penn State pride on my sleeve no matter what transpires from the scandal. I am proud of what I gave to the university and what the university gave to me in my four years. I had the best four years of my life at Penn State and will continue to support the school as much as ever. The bond between Penn Staters will be tested as these events run their course. But what makes Penn State great is its ability to endure and persevere through hard times. Penn State will rise again, and the bond that solidifies our "We Are" cheer will grow stronger.

In the wake of these horrible events, we must stand together as a proud group of Penn State students, faculty, staff, and alumni and demonstrate that we truly live by our alma mater's lyrics.

May no act of ours bring shame
To one heart that loves thy name,
May our lives but swell thy fame,
Dear old State, dear old State. 

Post-Mortem: October 29th Snowstorm

**Note:  The contents and thoughts of this and any other post by me are mine personally and do not necessarily reflect the views, position, or forecasts of AccuWeather.**

After a historic snowstorm for anytime of year, let alone October, let's take a look at how my forecast turned out.

Snowfall Map

Courtesy of AccuWeather

Please see post below for my map.

Overall I think my forecast was above average. Let's break down the good and the not-so-good.

Good

• Nailed the western and northern edge of accumulating snow
• Very good forecast of gradient over Vermont and New Hampshire
• Good forecast of jackpot in NE PA and N NJ
• Verified the tight gradient just north of NYC (2" in CPK)
• Verified the tight gradient just north of BOS
• Pretty good forecast of 6+"
• Nailed the accumulating snow in NYC

Not-So-Good

• Underestimated snow totals in Berkshires and southern NH where jackpot was (25-35" in some spots!)
• Slightly too north/south oriented with my snow area, should have been a bit more SW/NE
• Overdone in N central PA; heaviest bands ended up just south and then shifted east meaning precip was too light over this area and accumulation was tough
• Did not forecast mountain enhancement across WV and SW PA
• Too close to the coast with accumulating snow

What We Learned

• Snow CAN accumulate in New York City in October under perfect circumstances. Many respected meteorologists argued that climatology said no snow would occur. While this was a good argument, this storm was so anomalous, the moisture so plentiful, and the dynamics so ridiculous, that the possibility had to be accounted for and in the end, it happened.
• It can thundersnow in Harrisburg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2YuPz3q1rU) in October. The convective bands that developed over the region were quite something.
• If the snow rates had been less, the accumulations would have been much less due to the warm boundary layer in late October. One of the biggest things that I think was underestimated were the snowfall rates and how that would play a role on accumulations. If it snows hard enough, it WILL accumulate, and the opposite is true which is why there is a void of heavy snow in N central PA.
• The power outages and downed trees were as bad if not worse than advertised by the media. Some people believed that it was being hyped. In the end, it was awful as thousands remain without power.

In general, I think this storm was very well forecasted less than 2 days before the event. Outside of 2 days, poor model consensus led many forecasters to believe this storm would head out to sea. In retrospect, the weather pattern favored more of a progressive and out to sea solution. However, everything came together at the exact right time to prevent that scenario from occurring.

Finally, this discussion would not be complete without giving major props to the European Model which nailed this storm from 5 days out with multiple runs of the same solution. It was not without its flaws though as it shifted east about 3 days away from the storm, leading to a brief eastward model consensus. From that point on, the trend was west, back to the original Euro idea.

Looking forward to a great winter season!

Historic Snowstorm Takes Aim at Northeast

**Note:  The contents and thoughts of this and any other post by me are mine personally and do not necessarily reflect the views, position, or forecasts of AccuWeather.**

Ready for winter? Got your snow blower working? Got enough firewood and milk to last you a few days without power? If you answered no to any of these questions, I hope you don't live from Virginia to New England. Winter is coming early to portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast this weekend and it is going to be a brutal awakening for many. My latest thoughts on the storm along with snowfall map are below.

The Set-Up

There is no better place to start this discussion than at the beginning so let's begin with the current atmospheric set-up as of 3 AM (7 UTC) on Friday, October 28th 2011. Potentially the eve of an historic early season winter event.

The image below is a water vapor satellite image and I have highlighted the important areas using the extremely outdated and archaic "Paint" program. In basic terms, this image shows how much water vapor (or moisture) is in the mid to upper troposphere (part of the atmosphere where weather happens). Moist areas are whiter while dry areas are darker.

Courtesy of PSU E-Wall: GOES-13 Water Vapor 0615z 10/28

A definition of each area...

1) Northern branch shortwave (piece of energy)

2) Trailing southern branch shortwave

3: Leading southern branch shortwave

Rina: Tropical Storm Rina

Green arrrows: moisture plumes from subtropical jet and Rina

Over the next 36 hours, the three pieces of energy (1,2,3) will phase (or join together) over the Ohio Valley. All of this combined energy will allow an area of low pressure to form off the Eastern Seaboard Friday night. Let's take a look at a forecast model to get an idea of how the storm will evolve.

How the Storm Takes Shape

Below are 3 frames of the 0z/28 GFS (06 hours, 18 hours, and 30 hours). You can clearly see the 3 shortwaves fully phase together by 30 hours.

     00z/28 GFS; 6 hrs; unphased           00z/28 GFS; 18 hrs; unphased                                    

00z/28 GFS; 20 hrs; phased

The first two images (6 and 18 hours) are more for illustration purposes of how the shortwaves phase. The last image (30 hours--Friday night) is what I want to focus on to explain the set-up ahead of the storm.

I want to point out several key factors here...first is the trough across the lower Ohio Valley that is responsible for the precipitation circled on the bottom right chart. Second is the area of confluence (2 arrows) east of New England that is responsible for high pressure (upper right chart circle). Third is the shortwave trough just north of Washington. Fourth is the moisture plume being drawn northward from Rina (purple arrow on bottom left chart). All of these factors will play a role in storm evolution.

First, as the Ohio Valley trough deepens, air rises ahead of the trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere, lowering the surface air pressure, hence the low pressure off the Carolina coast. In addition, the area of high pressure over New England (1024 mb) is providing fresh cold air for the region. This is one of the major players in a winter storm in the Northeast. You almost always have an area of confluence over New England or just off the coast with surface high pressure providing the cold air.

This dome of cold air also helps to increase the precipitation. As the warm air from the south approaches the cold dome, it rides, up and over the dome because cold air is more dense. As the air rises, it saturates and it precipitates. This is a process called overrunning and is common ahead of warm fronts.

What does it mean in this situation? It means that snow is already breaking out across the central Appalachians and southern PA Friday after midnight. Then the fun begins.

The storm will rapidly intensify off the Delmarva Saturday morning as the upper air trough tilts negative. Moisture will be plentiful and thrown back into PA and NY. The cold air in these areas will keep precip all snow. Closer to the coast is where the battle ground will be and where the forecast is trickiest. How much snow will fall?

Snow Map

Snow map issued 5 AM 10/28

I apologize for the crudeness but it gets the point across. A breakdown of the zones:

Zone 1: Flurries only. Storm too far east for precip sheild to push this far north and east.

Zone 2: Coating-2" Cold but not too much precip

Zone 3: 2-4" Cold but not too much precip

Zone 4: 4-8"

Zone 5: 8-11"

Zone 6: 9-14" JACKPOT!

Zone 7: 4-8" Will begin as rain, then change to snow in much of this area.

Zone 8: 2-4" Majority of the storm is a cold rain, snow as storm pulls away, best accumulation on grassy areas.

Zone 9: Coating-2" as storm pulls away, otherwise rain.

Dashed line = rain/snow line. I expect little to no mixing north of this line.

My Reasoning

I am clearly favoring the snowier solution of the GFS and Euro and basically discounting the NAM based on the snow totals pictured above. There is startling consensus between both the GFS and Euro along with the GFS ensembles. In fact the GEFS are even farther west and wetter than the operational. The Euro has been so ridiculously consistent (since 5 days away) that it would be almost inconceivable that it ends up being wrong and the storm goes out to sea. The SREFs are also similar to the Euro and GFS although maybe slightly farther east. This is partially due to the NAM being east and the SREFs use some NAM solutions.

Of course a model consensus doesn't mean that the proposed solution will occur but other meteorological factors also point to a nasty storm, rather than a farther east solution (ala the NAM). The water vapor imagery this morning is very promising with the pieces coming together nicely. The moisture plume from Rina is working northward. As Rina moves northward you would expect this snowstorm to be farther west and north as well. Also, while an area of high pressure over the Northeast could help keep the storm south and east, I do not believe the dome of cold air is strong enough to suppress the system south.

Another tried and true method is the "Boise Ridge." If there is a ridge over Boise, ID 24 hours prior to the storm, snow is likely in the east (winter of course and temp dependent). The ridge axis looks to be just slightly east of Boise but with the rapidly amplifying trough in the east, the low should be able to pull itself close to the coast. In addition, the baroclinic boundary (warm water, cool land) is close to the coast, not off shore. The low will want to ride as close to this boundary as possible.

The model trend as also been to the west over the past 2 or 3 runs as all the pieces to the puzzle enter better data gathering areas of the US. In the end, this scenario that is unfolding is very rare and the all the pieces must fall into place at the exact right time or the storm will just slip out to sea. At this point though I do not see it happening and feel very confident about the snow map.

Final Thoughts

• Tight gradient of snow totals on northwest side of system. Slight shift west or east can drastically change area of heaviest snow.
• Tropical influence will allow for increased moisture and thus higher snowfall totals
• Rapidly deepening low will lead to convective banding. Thus, some places may see periods of light snow while areas just several miles away are getting dumped on. Convective banding is nearly impossible to pinpoint unfortunately.
• Snow will be extremely heavy due to relatively warm temperatures. Trees and powerlines will go down and thousands of people will be without power.
• It will be windy along the coast Saturday afternoon 25-35mph
• The "Big Cities" shouldn't see much accumulating snow.

Thanks for reading!

Matt McGloin: Superior Against Mediocrity

The quarterback controversy continues in Happy Valley and Jay Paterno said after Saturday's game against Eastern Michigan that both Bolden and McGloin will see time on Saturday in Bloomington, IN. This will do little to please a fan base that wants continuity at the QB position even though the two potential candidates have put up similar numbers thus far in 2011.

Many in State College believe the Bolden has more talent and has a brighter future but for some reason the offense moves better with McGloin at the helm. Whether it be chemistry with the offense, the play calling upstairs, or luck, #11 definitely out-played Bolden this past weekend against the Eastern Michigan Eagles, going 14-17 for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns.  This is a familiar theme for McGloin who has feasted on lesser defenses in the past. So why should anyone anoint McGloin the starter after one good showing against a poor defense when he looked atrocious against Alabama? You shouldn't.

It is my contention that while McGloin is a capable QB when Penn State plays mediocre defenses, Bolden gives the team the best chance to win against defenses at any level.

I want to break down McGloin's stats from last year. He started the final 6 games of the season and led the Lions to a 3-3 record. Let's group the wins and losses together and look at the stats...

Wins--3 (Michigan, Northwestern, Indiana)

Completions: 57

Attempts: 88

Pct: 64.78

TD: 7

INT: 0

Losses--3 (Ohio State, Michigan State, Florida)

Completions: 55

Attempts: 114

Pct: 48.25

TD: 5

INT: 8

Clearly a large disparity between the two stat groups. Obviously QB stats are likely to be worse in losses than in victories but 0 versus 8 interceptions and a completion percentage of 12% lower is too big of a gap. Clearly McGloin had issues in the 3 games he lost.

What do all three of the teams that the Lions lost to last season have in common? All boast quality defenses and both OSU and MSU were ranked (5 and 14 respectively) at the time.

The raw stats prove that McGloin does not give the Lions a good shot of winning when he faces high caliber defenses. This probably stems from the fact that he projects where he is going to throw the ball and seems to have trouble moving away from his primary receiver.

Looking at 2011, McGloin has played adequately with a great performance against Eastern Michigan. However, let's not forget his unfathomable 1-10 for 0 yards against Alabama (oh look...another quality defense).

To be fair, Bolden hasn't played much better this season, including the 'Bama game but at least he moved the  ball up and down the field, throwing for 144 yards, which was actually more than against Eastern Michigan (115 yards).

I am not saying that Bolden is leagues beyond McGloin, in fact they are very close. But although McGloin moves the offense better against mediocre defenses, he struggles against the Ohio State's of the college football world.

This creates an interesting dilemma this year. Arguably, Penn State does not face another quality defense until the last 3 games of the season (OSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin). So even if McGloin starts and plays extremely well until then, it is conceivable that he falls flat on his face to close the season like his 5-INT performance at the 2010 Outback Bowl.

Isn't it worth giving Bolden a shot at starting without McGloin always lurking on the sidelines so that he develops and becomes the vaunted player that Penn State recruited? Would you want McGloin starting another game against a superior defense when all he has done in his career is look overmatched?

Mariano Rivera: Definitely Not Pedestrian

When Mariano Rivera was brought up to the Big Leagues in 1995 and started 10 games for the Yankees, he looked pedestrian, sporting a 5.51 ERA and 1.51 WHIP while walking 30 in 67 innings.  16 years later, pedestrian would be one of the words never thought to describe the great Mariano.

In 1996, Joe Torre moved Mo to the bullpen and proved to be one of the best decisions ever--the greatest closer in baseball history was born. Since that world championship year where Mariano mostly acted as a bridge to closer John Wetteland, he has cemented himself among baseball lore for eternity.

Statistics generally don't lie, especially over 15 years. Throughout his Yankee tenure, since he was just "pedestrian" in 1995, Mo accumulated 1108 strikeouts in 1209 innings while only allowing 933 hits and 274 walks. That's a WHIP of an even 1.00. His ERA is a stellar 2.22 and on Monday this week he passed Trevor Hoffman to become the sole leader on the all-time saves list.

If the regular season stats don't impress you, try the post-season on for size:
IP: 139.2
ERA: 0.71
WHIP: 0.77--That's right, his ERA is LOWER than his WHIP
K/BB: 109/21
Saves: 42

To be fair, he did blow the Game 7 of the 2001 World Series against the Diamondbacks but that post-season will be remembered by Derek Jeter's November heroics and how the World Series brought a wounded New York City together.

As he moves into the twilight of his career (he is going to become pedestrian again, right?) Mariano still baffles hitters with pinpoint location and late movement on his pitches. Depending on how the last several games of the season end up, Rivera may finish 2011 with more saves than any year since 2004.

When he finally does retire, baseball will have lost an iconic figure. It's not just his dominance, it's how he plays the game--always tough on himself, but never dwells on the negatives (Burnett should take a page out of Rivera's book).

His record breaking save, #602, was just like hundreds before it. As Yankee fans, we have become used to watching 8 inning baseball games. When Enter Sandman is played, we know the game is over. When "Exit Sandman" finally happens, we will realize that the role of a closer is much harder than Mariano makes it look. He may have started pedestrian, but he became a legend and will continue to cement his place in baseball history for as long as he continues to pitch.

A Reflection: September 11, 2001

Unveiling the new blog with a reflection on the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. From a clear blue sky came horror that Americans could never imagine.

-------

A picture of our family sitting on a picnic table overlooking Lake George, NY still hangs on our refrigerator, reminding us of a moment in time when life seemed so simple and safe.

Just a few weeks later, our country was changed forever. A calm, clear, beautiful, fall-like morning in New York City turned to horror in a matter of seconds. The world came to a standstill as it watched the events unfold in real-time on new stations around the globe.

As a 12 year old, just starting 7th grade in central New Jersey, I was unaware of the news until I arrived home after school. During the school day many of my friends as well as other students were taken out of school early by their parents. The administration of my school, as well as hundreds of others around the country never thought something like September 11 could happen and therefore had no plan for notifying students. We were told that planes had crashed in New York, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania during our last period class and that was it. When I returned home, my parents sat down with my brother and I and explained what had taken place on our soil that Tuesday.

At the time, I remember reacting in a very matter of fact way and don't think I ever fully understood the ramifications of the terrorist attacks and how drastic the effect would be on our country and way of life. I remember going to memorial services to honor the fallen and attempt to heal the wounds from that day. Although I did not know anyone who perished, my friend's father worked in the World Trade Center and decided to stop to get coffee on his way to work. As he exited the coffee shop he saw the first plane hit, turned, and started walking back to the subway. Who knows if he would still be here if he hadn't stopped to get coffee.

Ten years later, as we reflect on that somber morning, how do we take time to pay tribute and honor those who lost their lives on September 11, 2011 and since then either fighting the war on terror or from health problems associated with helping others during the attacks?

As Andy Dufresne said in the Shawshank Redemption, "That's the beauty of music. They can't get that from you."  No matter what the situation, you can always hum a familiar tune or sing lyrics to a favorite song. Music can help bring you back to a place and a memory. Music can help heal wounds or fit your current mood. Music is also a powerful way to trigger emotions.

I'll close this reflection by leaving you with three musical tributes to 9-11-01. I hope they allow you a moment to reflect on that fateful day, what we have learned, how we have changed since then, and look to the future.

1) Paul Simon "Sound of Silence" Performance at NYC Memorial (9-11-11)

2) 2011 Madison Scouts Drum Corps Show "New York Morning"

--Just music
--Music and video

3) Penn State Blue Band 9-11-01 Tribute Halftime Show (9-11-11)


We Remember; We Will Never Forget--9.11.01