Monday, November 7, 2011

I Am Not Ashamed: Thoughts on the Sandusky Scandal

In August 2007 I auditioned for the Penn State Blue Band. I barely made the cut.

For the next four years I had the honor of representing The Pennsylvania State University at numerous sporting events including three bowl games, a trip to Ohio State, and the basketball team's NCAA tournament appearance in Tucson.

Each time I put on the uniform I did so with pride and honor. Whether it was marching down University Drive on the way to Beaver Stadium or in Pasadena for the 2009 Rose Bowl, spectators cheered for the band and what we represented.  Even after losing to USC in the Rose Bowl, many Trojan fans told us how much they respected Penn State and the Blue Band.

Needless to say, I am shocked at the despicable actions alleged at members of the Penn State administration. If true, Curley and Schultz should be severely punished for covering-up such heinous actions. However, it is a shame that they have already been crucified in the court of public opinion. The media, nor many in the public seem to remember or care that our judicial system prides itself on the mantra "innocent until proven guilty."

We should all demand answers but do it in a professional and civil way that reflects well on the university. In the heat of the moment we all jump to conclusions and let emotions control our thoughts and words. Only reasoned logic and a thorough review of the facts will lead us to the final conclusions that will emerge in the future.

While public opinion of Penn State will no doubt suffer in the coming weeks, months, and years, we must unite as a university to show the world that We Are better than these few men. The actions of a few do not define the greatness that is Penn State.

From the philanthropy of THON to the fervor of our sports fans, Penn State touches the lives of millions of people across the earth. It is these events and experiences that do not make me ashamed to be a Penn State alum. I will continue to wear my Penn State pride on my sleeve no matter what transpires from the scandal. I am proud of what I gave to the university and what the university gave to me in my four years. I had the best four years of my life at Penn State and will continue to support the school as much as ever. The bond between Penn Staters will be tested as these events run their course. But what makes Penn State great is its ability to endure and persevere through hard times. Penn State will rise again, and the bond that solidifies our "We Are" cheer will grow stronger.

In the wake of these horrible events, we must stand together as a proud group of Penn State students, faculty, staff, and alumni and demonstrate that we truly live by our alma mater's lyrics.

May no act of ours bring shame
To one heart that loves thy name,
May our lives but swell thy fame,
Dear old State, dear old State. 

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Post-Mortem: October 29th Snowstorm

**Note:  The contents and thoughts of this and any other post by me are mine personally and do not necessarily reflect the views, position, or forecasts of AccuWeather.**

After a historic snowstorm for anytime of year, let alone October, let's take a look at how my forecast turned out.

Snowfall Map


Courtesy of AccuWeather




Please see post below for my map.

Overall I think my forecast was above average. Let's break down the good and the not-so-good.

Good

  • Nailed the western and northern edge of accumulating snow
  • Very good forecast of gradient over Vermont and New Hampshire
  • Good forecast of jackpot in NE PA and N NJ
  • Verified the tight gradient just north of NYC (2" in CPK)
  • Verified the tight gradient just north of BOS
  • Pretty good forecast of 6+"
  • Nailed the accumulating snow in NYC
Not-So-Good
  • Underestimated snow totals in Berkshires and southern NH where jackpot was (25-35" in some spots!)
  • Slightly too north/south oriented with my snow area, should have been a bit more SW/NE
  • Overdone in N central PA; heaviest bands ended up just south and then shifted east meaning precip was too light over this area and accumulation was tough
  • Did not forecast mountain enhancement across WV and SW PA
  • Too close to the coast with accumulating snow
What We Learned
  • Snow CAN accumulate in New York City in October under perfect circumstances. Many respected meteorologists argued that climatology said no snow would occur. While this was a good argument, this storm was so anomalous, the moisture so plentiful, and the dynamics so ridiculous, that the possibility had to be accounted for and in the end, it happened.
  • It can thundersnow in Harrisburg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2YuPz3q1rU) in October. The convective bands that developed over the region were quite something.
  • If the snow rates had been less, the accumulations would have been much less due to the warm boundary layer in late October. One of the biggest things that I think was underestimated were the snowfall rates and how that would play a role on accumulations. If it snows hard enough, it WILL accumulate, and the opposite is true which is why there is a void of heavy snow in N central PA.
  • The power outages and downed trees were as bad if not worse than advertised by the media. Some people believed that it was being hyped. In the end, it was awful as thousands remain without power.
In general, I think this storm was very well forecasted less than 2 days before the event. Outside of 2 days, poor model consensus led many forecasters to believe this storm would head out to sea. In retrospect, the weather pattern favored more of a progressive and out to sea solution. However, everything came together at the exact right time to prevent that scenario from occurring.

Finally, this discussion would not be complete without giving major props to the European Model which nailed this storm from 5 days out with multiple runs of the same solution. It was not without its flaws though as it shifted east about 3 days away from the storm, leading to a brief eastward model consensus. From that point on, the trend was west, back to the original Euro idea.

Looking forward to a great winter season!