We Were Penn State? Hardly

The upcoming Sports Illustrated cover says it all: "We Were Penn State." That's right, heinous crimes, a cover-up, $60 million in fines, stripping of scholarships, and a multiple year post-season ban strips Penn State of its identity. The university will never recover and is no longer Penn State.

What a load of crap.

While I'm sure this copy of SI will fly off the racks due to the dramatic cover, it twists the knife into a community that already has taken a lambasting from the media and much of the public. Maybe SI should donate half of it's proceeds from this issue to child abuse protection. But I guess that would be a common-sense and productive solution which people in power seem to be incapable of making.

From the alleged (has not been proven in a court of law and the Freeh report has a lower burden of proof) cover-up at Penn State to the nuclear bomb that Mark Emmert and the NCAA dropped on the Nittany Lions today, the leaders in the sporting world cannot seem to do what is right.

Clearly there is a big difference between the actions of Sandusky, Curley, Schultz, Spanier, and Paterno to that of Mark Emmert but both situations could have been handled differently. The Penn State gang should have made sure Sandusky was stopped while Emmert should have directed his urge to satisfy the lynch mob by using these tragic events to start a discussion of priorities in collegiate athletics. 

Instead, he wielded his power to cripple the Penn State program and use it as an example. He made it sound as if Penn State is the only school to put it's football (or in some cases basketball) program ahead of everything else. Has he ever traveled to SEC country? Will these sanctions on Penn State prompt other universities to take a hard, close look at their priorities? I doubt it.

Going back to the Sports Illustrated cover, they are wrong. So dead wrong.

Why?

Because you can't take away the memories thousands of us have of this great university. If I were a senior in high school today I would still make the same decision I did several years ago and attend Penn State. 

I didn't make that decision because of Joe Paterno.

I did it because of the magical feeling I got when I stepped onto campus for the first time.

I did it because of the fantastic people I met in the meteorology department during my first visit.

I did it for the opportunity to audition for the best collegiate marching band in the nation.

I was fortunate enough to make the the Blue Band and some of my best memories of Penn State revolve around the people I met in that organization. While the bowl games were fun, they pale in comparison to my most vivid memories as a member of the Blue Band.

Whether it be walking across campus at dawn on a crisp, Saturday morning in late October with frost covering the ground and hearing the crack of snare drums rifle across the IM fields, or marching into Beaver Stadium during pregame, or taking a moment out of rehearsal to view a spectacular sunset, all of these memories will stay with me forever.

I got to travel to Indianapolis and Tucson, proudly representing Penn State as a member of the basketball pep band. 

My education at Penn State prepared me for the job I now enjoy at AccuWeather. 

During my senior year, I was given the opportunity to attend the annual American Meteorological Society conference in Seattle where I networked with professionals in my field and met many interesting people and learned about a variety of specific topics in the atmospheric sciences.

I share these memories with the huge number of friends I met at Penn State. Although it is such a big place, you never know where you might run into someone. That was never clearer than last night when I was downtown grabbing a drink when a fellow sax player walked past. He was just up visiting for the day, yet we happened to run into each other and spent time catching-up. It's these impromptu experiences that make Happy Valley such a special place.

From parties and bars downtown to going ice skating to meeting truly awesome people, the memories I made will never go away.

There is no doubt the sanctions levied on Penn State will hurt the football program and negatively impact parts of our community, but we must overcome. We are being tested and we must prevail.

Before each football game, Dr. Bundy (director of the Blue Band and someone I had the privilege of working with for 4 years) would call us in for a huddle. Our 300+ member band would unite, mentally preparing for the upcoming day. "Carpe the heck out of the diem," he would say. These words are always words to live by but have greater meaning now. We must persevere, we must stay strong. We cannot let the public and media define us.

It's not the scholarships and bowl games.

It's the experiences.

It's the people you meet and will never forget.

A Dark Day at Penn State: The Scathing Freeh Report

Although not the darkest day in the history of Penn State (that is saved for the day the allegations were released), today couldn't get much worse for us Nittany Lions. The release of the scathing Freeh Report not only confirmed much of what we knew, but made it vividly clear that our leaders failed us. Our community failed us. And Joe Paterno, a man who many think could do nothing wrong, failed us.

While I am sure there are many people out there still blinded by the good Joe Paterno did for the university and will no doubt condemn this report as a biased attack on a dead man, there is no doubt, upon reading the report, that Paterno played a role in this cover-up. If you are a Penn Stater and are unwilling to admit that, then you really should re-examine the evidence, and your try to be unbiased.

Having said that, all of the great things Joe Paterno should not be forgotten. He contributed much to the university that will never be forgotten. However, as he himself said, "I wish I had done more." Joe Paterno made a fatal mistake. Spanier, Curley, Schultz, the police, and many others made major mistakes.

Obviously many people around the nation will want the death penalty for the football team or for the university itself. Critics will say that Penn State is tarnished beyond repair. Some may also even say that a Penn State degree is damaged.

That is an overreaction.

However, as the Freeh report states, the culture of Penn State must be examined. This was allowed to happen because certain people wielded so much power and the Board of Trustees did not do their proper job of oversight. While this is most definitely an issue at Penn State and much has been done in the past months to combat this culture, there needs to be a bigger discussion about collegiate football.

It is impossible to believe that something this catastrophic could ONLY happen at Penn State. Football is as important, if not more so, at schools just as Notre Dame, USC, Florida, Ohio State, etc. To believe that certain people in these organizations would not go to similar lengths to prevent bad publicity is foolish. Power promotes corruption but we put people in positions of power who we believe will do the right thing. That was not the case at Penn State. Hopefully those at other universities, corporations, and governments will take this tragic case to heart and ensure it doesn't happen again.

One last point which in no way is in no way an attempt to exonerate Paterno but merely explain some of his actions is a generational issue. From speaking with people Paterno's age, it seems that people of that generation do not understand what child rape is. Many years ago it almost seems that things like this was never discussed and that it was taboo. Again, not saying what Paterno did was right, but that he may not have fully comprehended a man raping a man.

In the end, this is a dark time for Penn State and alumni will no doubt take heavy criticism. But we must remember that tens of thousands of Penn Staters were innocent in all of this and that we represent all that is excellent at our university. The most important thing (other than the victims) in this horrific tragedy is to learn from the terrible mistakes of those who were corrupted by power. Let us all treat every decision in our lives with importance. And let us never take the easy way out in order to "save face." WE must do the right thing, even if it is the hardest. WE Are Penn State.

Nine in a Row? Whoa!

Hitting .208 with runners in scoring position; needing home runs to win games. This doesn't necessarily sound like the recipe for a long winning streak in baseball but that is indeed what the New York Yankees did over the past 9 games--win them all.

Stats can be misleading and incomplete. Despite not taking advantage of scoring opportunities, the Yanks still rampaged through the NL East due to outstanding starting pitching and opportune power hitting.

With an ERA of 1.82 during the winning streak and 15 home runs, the 16-77 stat with RISP is much more meaningless.

In years past, a sweep of 3 teams in the NL East might have been thought of as something a bit less impressive. This year however, the NL East is one of the strongest divisions in baseball and the Yanks beat the Mets,  Braves, and Nationals, all teams with winning records. According to Elias Sports Bureau, it is the first time in franchise history that Yanks had a winning streak of this length against teams with winning records.

The Yanks are definitely on fire and now head back to New York looking to make it a clear 12 and 0 against the NL East when they face the Braves tonight. And who better to take the mound than ace CC Sabathia.

The scary thing about how the Yanks are playing is that if they actually hit with runners in scoring position they would be many times better and absolutely crushing opponents. New York is playing extremely well and you can't argue with 9 in a row but if they can fire on all cylinders, they could run away with the division.

Yankees May Review: Can I Get A Hit?

Once again, about a half month late on this and I have been absent from posting since last month but I hope I can change that over the summer. A look at the Yankees in May...

Record: 14-14

Offensive Stats:
Batting Average: .261 (6th in AL)
Slugging Percentage: .445 (3rd in AL)
Home Runs: 39 (3rd in AL)
RBI: 108 (11th in AL)
Runs: 112 (11th in AL)
Hits: 246 (9th in AL)
My Grade Average: 2.50 (~B-) 

Thoughts: It was a rough month for the offense and my B- average might be a bit generous. Although they were 14-14 they still have yet to win a game where they haven't hit a home run. As has been well documented across the media, hitting with RISP has been atrocious and even worse has been hitting with the bases loaded (still a sub-.200 average). The good news is that the home runs keep coming. Brett Gardner is still out and looks to be for a long time so the Yanks have to find other ways to produce runs. Cano has started to hit and A-Rod and Tex showed some signs of life although they haven't been as good as they should be. Overall a mediocre month for the bats.

Pitching Stats:
ERA: 3.97 (6th in AL)
Hits Allowed: 252 (6th most in AL)
Earned Runs Allowed: 108 (10th most in AL)
Home Runs: 38 (2nd most in AL)
Walks: 79 (12th most in AL)
Strikeouts: 210 (7th in AL)
My Starting Pitching Grade Average: 3.02 (~B)
My Bullpen Grade Average: 3.20 (~B+)

Thoughts: The pitching was on the upswing for the Yanks in May, much improved from their quite dismal April start. The return of Andy Pettitte added a nice spark to the rotation and he has been a solid number 2 starter. The stat categories listed above showed much improvement from April and the ERA has dropped significantly to a much more acceptable level (it has been even better in June so far).

Pitcher Breakdown (# of starts); Starter Grade/Offensive Support Grade/Bullpen Support Grade

Sabathia (5): 3.60/3.07/3.33 (Yankees were 3-2 in his starts) 
Kuroda (5): 2.73/1.60/3.07 (Yankees were 2-3 in his starts)
Hughes (6):  2.95/2.83/2.89 (Yankees were 3-3 in his starts)
Nova (6):  2.89/2.72/3.78 (Yankees were 4-2 in his starts)
Pettitte (4): 3.42/2.50/3.17 (Yankees were 2-2 in his starts)
Phelps (2): 2.17/1.67/2.50 (Yankees were 0-2 in his starts)
Thoughts: A fairly blah month for starting pitching as a whole. Phelps provided a quality bridge to Pettitte despite the 2 losses in his starts. The Yanks won 4 of 6 starts by Nova who continues to get run support and good bullpen relief (highest for the team). Sabathia was fairly consistent although had a sub-par outing or two. Kuroda was hit or miss but seemed to find himself late in the month. The enigma that is Phil Hughes continued but fortunately June seems like a much better month for the right-hander.

Yankees April Review: The Bullpen Shines

**This is the first installment of the Yankees monthly review.  I'll summarize the previous month and give my grade averages for each category and starting pitcher for the month as well as the cumulative averages.  Grades are numerically calculated using a GPA type system where an A+ is a 4.33, A is a 4.0, A- is a 3.67, B+ is a 3.33 and so on.  The numbers are then averaged for each category.** 


So this about a half a month overdue but better late than never. Let's take a look at the month of the April for New York.


Record: 13-9  (16-9 in 2011)


Offensive Stats:
Batting Average: .273 (3rd in AL)
Slugging Percentage: .472 (3rd in AL)
Home Runs: 37 (1st in AL)
RBI: 116 (3rd in AL)
Runs: 120 (3rd in AL)
Hits: 208 (3rd in AL)
My Grade Average: 3.09 (~B)


Thoughts: A successful start to the season with an unusual red-hot start from Nick Swisher. Someone is looking for a ton of money in the off season. The middle of the order had a slow start and you begin to wonder if A-Rod is in decline given his age. Teixiera on the other hand always seems to start slow and has been battling a cold. Thankfully, Derek Jeter has just turned 25 years old and is amazing everybody with his ridiculous start. Hitting .440+ versus left handers and .330ish since his 3,000th hit last summer. Biggest issue with the offense is the lack of manufacturing runs without the long ball. It always seems to be a problem and doesn't get any easier with Brett Gardner out.


Pitching Stats:
ERA: 4.33 (11th in AL)
Hits Allowed: 204 (4th most in AL)
Earned Runs Allowed: 95 (3rd most in AL)
Home Runs: 27 (4th most in AL)
Walks: 64 (9th most in AL)
Strikeouts: 192 (1st in AL)
My Starting Pitching Grade Average: 2.61 (~B-)
My Bullpen Grade Average: 3.57 (almost an A-)


Thoughts: You can never have too much starting pitching. After the ineffectiveness of Garcia we saw Pettitte and Phelps in May who both pitched much more effectively. However the starting rotation continues to struggle. Hughes was pretty terrible in April (although he has turned it around in May). Nova had a good record but poor ERA--inconsistent. CC got on track after a few poor outings to start. Kuroda still seems to struggle with the American League--will be interesting to see how he fares. Bullpen continues to be a strength though. But we all know how that would fall apart after April with Mo's ACL and Roberston's ribs. It will be very interesting to see May's bullpen effectiveness.


Pitcher Breakdown (# of starts); Starter Grade/Offensive Support Grade/Bullpen Support Grade

Sabathia (5): 3.47/3.93/3.73 (Yankees were 4-1 in his starts)
Kuroda (5): 3.07/2.47/3.86 (Yankees were 2-3 in his starts)
Hughes (4): 1.59/2.17/3.25 (Yankees were 1-3 in his starts)
Nova (4): 3.50/3.75/3.83 (Yankees were 4-0 in his starts)
Garcia (4): 1.08/3.09/3.08 (Yankees were 2-2 in his starts)


Thoughts: Clearly Nova and Sabathia stood out as the 2 good starters. Kuroda had a decent start but struggled at times. Garcia and Hughes were terrible quite frankly. Especially Garcia who received 2 consecutive grades of "F". That's pretty impressively terrible. The good news is that the Yanks were able to win 3 of the 8 starts by Hughes/Garcia. All starters benefited from good bullpen support while CC got a ton of offense in his starts.

Stats, Stupidity, and Shaving Cream

It is that time of year again. The time of year I attempt to blog consistently about the Yankees and inevitably end up failing by the summer. The good news? My longest Yankees blogging streak was last year and it lasted into July. So maybe I'll aim for August in 2012.

I've realized that my goal of blogging about every game with grades on each one was a bit over ambitious so I'm going to relegate it to series or "whenever I see fit" (aka "I don't know when I'll have time so this covers everything"). However, I will still be grading the Yanks for each game (although I won't be posting about each game) and do plan on issuing monthly "report cards" on the team.

So, as a little sneak preview here are some of the stats (Subjective grades) I've compiled thus far. A more comprehensive report will be forthcoming once April is.....OVER! (Blue Band reference)

I have used a simple GPA system for grading. A+ = 4.33, A = 4.00, A- = 3.67, etc. Yes you can get an F, that would be 0.00.


Offense thru 4/27: 3.12
Starting Pitching thru 4/27: 2.60
Bullpen thru 4/27: 3.47

Best Starter: Nova with a 3.50

Clearly the starting pitching has not been up to par and if I have time this weekend maybe I'll put together some stats on how the Yanks rate thus far in that department...it isn't pretty.

On a more timely note, good win for the Yanks tonight. Too bad Joe West can't get out of his own way. Like many, I can't stand the man and he is a terrible umpire who cares more about himself than the game. The prime example of that was when Russel Martin was plunked with a foul ball tonight and instead of Joe West walking the ball out to Mariano (the common practice--when either an ump or catcher gets nailed the other gives the victim a little time to shake it off), Joe decides to just keep on playing the game. We wouldn't want the game to go on any longer than necessary, would we Joe? Especially since he finds the Yanks/Red Sox 4hr+ games unprofessional. Jeez...what a joke. The MLB should get rid of him...oh wait he is the president of the World Umpires Association.

Now that that rant is complete...the Yanks did have a nice win tonight on the walk off wild pitch but no pies were forthcoming. I mean, you can't really pie Avila can you? Seriously though, that would have been hilarious for Swish (who may be taking over the pieing duties from AJ) to find Avila and hit him with some shaving cream. Wonder if AJ will be the pier in Pittsburgh...I mean, what else is he good for anyway?

A Tale of Two Series: Yanks 3-3 Start

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Well I guess that doesn't really apply to the first two series for the Yankees but at least I'm using a cultural reference to my title of this blog (quick, who wrote that novel?)

It was quite the series in Tampa for the Yanks leading off the season. Joe Girardi had a poor managerial season debut, CC got knocked around, Kuroda didn't show why the Yanks spent so much money on him, Mo blew his first save of the season. On the bright side, the Yanks did score runs (12 in 3 games) off of a quality Rays pitching staff (in fact Hellickson shutout the Bombers).

Fortunately, the Yanks schedule allowed them to face the curer of all problems...the Orioles. Despite Baltimore's 3-0 start, their pitching couldn't hold up against the Yanks, dropping the 3 game set to New York. Two of the games went to extra innings with the Yanks winning on a Raul Ibanez RBI in game 2 and a Nick Swisher HR in the 10th. Luckily the game didn't go longer, or New York could have run out of pitchers after depleting the bullpen in the second game of the series (that went 12 innings).

The Baltimore series showcased the Yanks brilliant bullpen and saw Rivera pick up his first and second save of the season. However despite the 3 wins, New York struggled with runners in scoring position (RISP) going .184 (7-38) and an abysmal 2-18 in the second game of the set.

In the end, it was a decent start to the season for New York despite the sweep in Tampa Bay.

Winter Has Returned to State College After A Long, Harsh Summer...

I woke up this afternoon the sweet sound and smell of spring rain....I mean the harsh metallic pounding of sleet on my window.

Yes, it's April in State College and after a long, hot summer in March, winter has returned to central Pennsylvania. It won't be long now until the Christmas lights go up and carols are being sung in the streets.

All kidding aside, by the reactions of some people you would think this change to wintry weather is the apocalypse, that when it's 80 degrees in March, it's going to be 80 degrees until September. I mean, why not? That is one of the effects of global warming, right? That's what I've been told by MSNBC.

In fact, the average snowfall in April in State College is 1.9 inches and the record is 20.5 inches! So to all the complainers...after a March that was the 2nd warmest on record with an average high temperature of 59 degrees, numerous days in the 70s, and the 3rd least snowy March on record you have no right to complain about a little cool down in April--we were spoiled.

One important job of a meteorologist is to put the weather in context for the public. In this case, meteorologists should be communicating how UNusual March was but how USUAL this current weather is.

This blog post wouldn't be complete without my once a year hail vs. sleet rant (one of my biggest pet peeves as a meteorologist, along with using relative humidity instead of dew point to describe how sticky it feels outside--I'll save that argument for a different time).

I saw/heard many comments today, including from the official Penn State Facebook page, that it was hailing! I mean... like oh my god it's totally hailing outside. There must, like, definitely be tornado nearby.

Now I'm not going to condemn and put all the blame on the public for being so ill-informed because the fact that so many people don't know the difference between hail and sleet is partially the fault of meteorologists. We need to do a better job educating the public.

In any event, NO ONE saw hail today (in State College)--if you live in Texas you would beg to differ I bet :) What fell from the heavens today was sleet, or graupel (pronounced GRAW-pull), or ice pellets. Basically, you were experiencing partially melted and then re-frozen snowflakes. Technically there is a slight difference between graupel and ice pellets but that's insignificant to this discussion.

Simply put, sleet occurs from late fall through early spring (in the Northeast) and generally falls during a snow storm or showery type of event.

Hail on the other hand is formed by convection (aka thunderstorms). Ice particles in a cloud fall toward the surface of the Earth and partially melt. Before they fall out of the cloud though, strong winds in a thunderstorm pick the ice back up and throw it back high into the atmosphere where it accumulates more water droplets (thus adding to its size and weight). Eventually, once the hail stone becomes too heavy for the winds to keep it airborne, it falls out of the cloud as hail.

A quick (but not fool proof or scientific) rule for determining between hail and sleet is that if it is thundering, it's hail. If not, it's sleet.

And I'm done...

Sleet, a generally late fall through early spring phenomenon (in the Northeast), is formed when snowflakes high up in the atmosphere fall through a layer of above freezing air and partially melt

Temperature and the Trayvon Martin Case

Weather often plays a role in criminal investigations and Mother Nature has a small tale to tell in the Trayvon Martin shooting.

Originally, it was reported that George Zimmerman said "f'in c**n" (referring to Trayvon Martin). This was what audio experts at some news organizations as well as many members of the public thought the audio recording revealed. However, the word after "f'in" is quite hard to make out. Recently, CNN reported they made a mistake and Zimmerman actually said "f'in cold." There have also been some other ideas and many people say its impossible to tell what he actually said.

If Zimmerman did indeed complain about how cold it was, we can use weather data from that night to attempt to validate his claim. A look at the weather information from Sanford International Airport (KSFB) which is a little over 5 miles (as the crow flies) from the shooting location.

Shooting Time: 7 PM February 26, 2012

Temperature at 6:53 PM (KSFB): 63 F

Average High for Feb 26: 72 F

Average Low for Feb 26: 47 F

Clearly 63 F isn't generally referred to as cold...especially when it's February...even in Florida. However, as Dr. Jon Nese always said...temperature is all relative. Some in Siberia thinks 70 is HOT while a resident of Texas thinks 100 is a walk in the park but might think 50 is cold. (Side note: In Disneyworld a few years ago in January it was about 50 degrees and sunny and all the Disney employees were wearing wool coats and earmuffs...I was quite comfortable in a light jacket--again, all relative.)

Back to the Trayvon Martin case...I think many of us would say 63 F wouldn't be a temperature at which you would exclaim..."F'in cold".  However, what was George Zimmerman used to at that time of night?

A look at high, low and 7pm temps for days leading up to the shooting...

Feb 23

High: 84

Low: 66

7 PM: 78

Feb 24

High: 89

Low: 64

7 PM: 80

Feb 25

High: 72

Low: 52

7 PM: 56

Clearly the 23rd and 24th were quite warm. Also, the dew points on the 23rd and 24th were in the 60s (making it feel more humid and uncomfortable). On the 25th, a strong cold front blasted through Florida dropping temps 10-15 degrees and dropping dew points into the 30s (making it feel much drier).  However by the evening of the 26th, temperatures were moderating and dew points were back up to the 60-degree mark.

We obviously don't know what Zimmerman's idea of "f'in cold" is but 63 is quite chilly compared to the 78 and 80 experienced on the 23rd and 24th BUT quite warm compared to the 56 experienced at 7PM on the 25th.

Looking at other factors, it was not windy at the time of the shooting (7 mph) but it was rainy and overcast--which could have added to the chill.

While the above does not to try prove or disprove that Zimmerman said something about the cold, it is definitely possible that he was used to the 23rd and 24th and the 63 degrees felt quite chilly. However, it was warmer than the night before, but on the other hand it was raining.

In the end, there is no conclusive answer here, just more insight into a terrible tragedy.

Data gathered from Weather Underground archive (KSFB airport info). Publicly avaiable at Wunderground.com. Also surface weather maps consulted from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

The Flowers Aren't Flowering and a Circus Tent...

Well, it's that time of year again. The worst two months of the year in sports are finally over (sans March Madness). The doldrums of February sporting events (I can't even watch SportsCenter in February) long in the rear-view mirror. As we flip the calendar to April, we can finally be excited about grass getting greener and the weather warming up (or in some cases the grass has been green for a month and temperatures have been warm since October--but what's a little global warming to shake things up a bit?)

There are two reasons to be excited for this week in sports: The Masters, and Opening Day.

Questions abound.

Can Tiger finish his comeback and win a major for the first time since he wrecked his car (and his life)? Will Hunter Mahan continue to impress? Can Rory McIlroy win his first major? Who will be victimized by the par-3 12th hole? Why aren't the flowers in bloom?

That's right, Augusta's flowers have gone green! Mother Nature and her extremely early spring can be thanked for that. The month of March finished over 8 degrees above average in Augusta. Temperatures broke 80-degrees almost daily in the second half of the month.

The unprecedented warmth caused the beautiful azaleas usually a staple of The Masters tradition to flower early. They are now green. So while the color we are so accustomed to seeing each year at Augusta will not be there in the foliage, I'm sure Ian Poulter's pants will still provide ample amounts of flashiness.

On to baseball...

What team will surprise the league this year? Will Mariano Rivera finally show his age? Who do I take as my final pick in my fantasy league draft? Will my fantasy team win it all this year?

The good news on the weather front (no pun intended) is that snow looks to be lacking for Opening Day. Good thing the Braves are on the road because it looks like a wet Thursday in Atlanta.

As far as the Yankees (because that's the only team that matters :) they play Friday under the big tent at the Trop. The circus is back...I mean baseball returns to SW Florida. Maybe someday they will finally finish that new stadium...but I won't hold my breath. For now, we still have to deal with the eye sore that is the Trop. At least the game won't be delayed with forecast of rain (unless the roof leaks or caves in).

I think I'll stop rambling for now. It's going to be another exciting season in baseball and golf and I hope to post a lot more in the next several months, especially regarding the Yanks.

Why It Didn't Snow Saturday Morning: A Few Thoughts

As light snow fell on New York City Saturday morning, amounting to little more than a coating on grassy surfaces, weather weenies across the area were disappointed yet again by another storm slipping by without any meaningful accumulation.

Some computer model runs proceeding the storm tantalized snow lover with several inches of fresh powder and many hoped the two pieces of atmospheric energy would come together to bring up to 8" of snow to the area. Alas, this was not to be and the benign winter across the Northeast continued.

As many weather enthusiasts mourn the loss of snow to the fish and other marine life, let's take a look at two things that should have been red flags as this storm developed.

Leading up to the storm, computer models continued to output varying amounts of liquid equivalent. Ranging anywhere from zero to over a half an inch, forecasters tried to form a consensus and decide on how much liquid would actually fall, translating it to snowfall amounts. In the end, most places from Philly to NYC saw around a tenth of an inch of liquid which amounted to only a trace of snowfall on grassy surfaces. While the bulk of precipitation did indeed go out to sea and the storm never fully organized in time to bring heavier snow to the area, one thing shown on the computer models should have been taken into account more heavily--the lack of precipitation in 6-hr periods. 

From what I remember, (and if I'm wrong, I hope someone will correct me) many of the forecast models showed 0.05-0.15 inches of precipitation in 6-hr time periods, sometimes amounting to around 0.30 inches in 12 hours. For the sake of simplicity, let's say 0.12" was forecast in 6 hours. That's 0.02"/hr which, with a standard 10:1 snowfall ratio is 0.2" of snow per hour. So with this hypothetical situation, you would expect 1.2" of snow in 6 hours. But weather is much more complicated than multiplying by 10. If you're getting snowfall at 0.2"/hr and the surface temperatures is 34, and the snow is falling during the day, you aren't going to get meaningful accumulation. Plain and simple. These were the conditions in NYC on Saturday morning and therefore, only a coating.

The minimal QPF shown on the models should have been a red flag in addition to the warm boundary layer. Although surface temperatures ended up being a bit colder than forecast, they still were not chilly enough to allow snow to stick to paved surfaces--the light snowfall rates contributed to this as well.

The second thing that should have been noticed on Thursday night, 24 hours before the snow began in the Northeast, was how poorly the models (especially the NAM) were handling the moisture associated with the southern shortwave. Unfortunately, I don't have the graphical images so bear with me for an explanation.

A little after midnight Thursday night (early Friday morning) rain was spreading into south central Louisiana. By 12z Friday, the rain was almost into Mississippi. The 0z run of the NAM 12-hr prog showed it DRY across ALL of Louisiana. Translation: the NAM was too slow right off the bat with the southern shortwave. What did the 0z NAM show in terms of snow? At least several inches for NYC with around a half inch of QPF. But this obviously had an extremely slim chance of happening as the NAM at 12 hrs was already too slow with the southern shortwave.

Why is this so important?

This storm hinged on the northern and southern pieces of energy interacting closely. With a faster southern system and I would argue slightly slower northern system, the storm never had a chance as of early morning Friday to come together in time to bring moderate snowfall to New York. For all intensive purposes, in hindsight, the snowstorm threat could have been cancelled at 2am Friday.

So we'll move into the second half of February still without a significant storm for New York City and weather weenies ready to tear down the message boards, praying, wishing for snow (and bashing others in the process--why can't we all just be friends and talk about the weather politely but with passion? That's a topic for another time though...).

A Closing White-Out: Joe Paterno Thoughts

I've been thinking all day of how to honor Joe Paterno. Trying to think of how to write something heartfelt, but not cliched. Something original, something that shows what he means to me.

In 1989, JoePa was quoted in the New York Times as saying, "what counts in sports is not the victory, but the magnificence of the struggle." This applies to all facets of life as well. It's not what you achieve that molds you, it's the path you take to get there--and Joe Paterno tried to show others the best path.

He molded men, taught them success with honor, made them believe in themselves.

While I never had the opportunity to meet Paterno, I had the privilege of sharing the Beaver Stadium field with him after each home game while I was in the Blue Band. I witnessed victory 400 and 409. Obviously unaware at the time, I witnessed his final game.

I will never forget the mark he left on me as a person. Hearing him speak for 5 years at pep rallies was inspiring. We were listening to a living legend tell stories, give us insight, and inspire us. He talked about growing up in Brooklyn. He spoke of telling President Nixon to "shove-it" when Penn State was passed over for the national championship. He spoke of good sportsmanship toward other teams. He told us not to "boo." He taught us to show class.

How do we remember his legacy? It most definitely isn't defined by the last 12 weeks of his life. Rather, it is shaped by 85 years of life. We remember all the football players he developed, all the men he helped develop. His generous donations to the university, to charity. I've heard numerous tidbits and quotes about and from JoePa--too many to recount here. But one in particular sticks in my mind. A friend of mine saw Joe walking around campus one day and said to Joe, "Have a good day, sir." Joe replied, "No son, you make it a good day."

In the end, Joe's life came to a close like a Shakespearean tragedy.

The epitome of the tragic hero, Joe had his flaws. He was not perfect, none of us are.

The tragic hero was a true Penn Stater and lived his life the way we should all live ours. He believed in the Penn State institution and all the good that is done in Happy Valley. We are one university which we show better than anyone else, especially when we wear white on Saturday's.

Saturday's will no longer be the same at Beaver Stadium. The fall chill and smell of the leaves will not be the same.

But it is somehow fitting that nature produced her most substantial white-out of the season a day preceding Joe's passing. And on the day of his passing, Beaver Stadium's lights lit-up the night sky, reflecting off the low cloud deck.

Illuminating the heavens...lighting the way home.

R.I.P. Joseph Vincent Paterno