Temperature and the Trayvon Martin Case

Weather often plays a role in criminal investigations and Mother Nature has a small tale to tell in the Trayvon Martin shooting.

Originally, it was reported that George Zimmerman said "f'in c**n" (referring to Trayvon Martin). This was what audio experts at some news organizations as well as many members of the public thought the audio recording revealed. However, the word after "f'in" is quite hard to make out. Recently, CNN reported they made a mistake and Zimmerman actually said "f'in cold." There have also been some other ideas and many people say its impossible to tell what he actually said.

If Zimmerman did indeed complain about how cold it was, we can use weather data from that night to attempt to validate his claim. A look at the weather information from Sanford International Airport (KSFB) which is a little over 5 miles (as the crow flies) from the shooting location.

Shooting Time: 7 PM February 26, 2012

Temperature at 6:53 PM (KSFB): 63 F

Average High for Feb 26: 72 F

Average Low for Feb 26: 47 F

Clearly 63 F isn't generally referred to as cold...especially when it's February...even in Florida. However, as Dr. Jon Nese always said...temperature is all relative. Some in Siberia thinks 70 is HOT while a resident of Texas thinks 100 is a walk in the park but might think 50 is cold. (Side note: In Disneyworld a few years ago in January it was about 50 degrees and sunny and all the Disney employees were wearing wool coats and earmuffs...I was quite comfortable in a light jacket--again, all relative.)

Back to the Trayvon Martin case...I think many of us would say 63 F wouldn't be a temperature at which you would exclaim..."F'in cold".  However, what was George Zimmerman used to at that time of night?

A look at high, low and 7pm temps for days leading up to the shooting...

Feb 23

High: 84

Low: 66

7 PM: 78

Feb 24

High: 89

Low: 64

7 PM: 80

Feb 25

High: 72

Low: 52

7 PM: 56

Clearly the 23rd and 24th were quite warm. Also, the dew points on the 23rd and 24th were in the 60s (making it feel more humid and uncomfortable). On the 25th, a strong cold front blasted through Florida dropping temps 10-15 degrees and dropping dew points into the 30s (making it feel much drier).  However by the evening of the 26th, temperatures were moderating and dew points were back up to the 60-degree mark.

We obviously don't know what Zimmerman's idea of "f'in cold" is but 63 is quite chilly compared to the 78 and 80 experienced on the 23rd and 24th BUT quite warm compared to the 56 experienced at 7PM on the 25th.

Looking at other factors, it was not windy at the time of the shooting (7 mph) but it was rainy and overcast--which could have added to the chill.

While the above does not to try prove or disprove that Zimmerman said something about the cold, it is definitely possible that he was used to the 23rd and 24th and the 63 degrees felt quite chilly. However, it was warmer than the night before, but on the other hand it was raining.

In the end, there is no conclusive answer here, just more insight into a terrible tragedy.

Data gathered from Weather Underground archive (KSFB airport info). Publicly avaiable at Wunderground.com. Also surface weather maps consulted from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.