Winter Has Returned to State College After A Long, Harsh Summer...

I woke up this afternoon the sweet sound and smell of spring rain....I mean the harsh metallic pounding of sleet on my window.

Yes, it's April in State College and after a long, hot summer in March, winter has returned to central Pennsylvania. It won't be long now until the Christmas lights go up and carols are being sung in the streets.

All kidding aside, by the reactions of some people you would think this change to wintry weather is the apocalypse, that when it's 80 degrees in March, it's going to be 80 degrees until September. I mean, why not? That is one of the effects of global warming, right? That's what I've been told by MSNBC.

In fact, the average snowfall in April in State College is 1.9 inches and the record is 20.5 inches! So to all the complainers...after a March that was the 2nd warmest on record with an average high temperature of 59 degrees, numerous days in the 70s, and the 3rd least snowy March on record you have no right to complain about a little cool down in April--we were spoiled.

One important job of a meteorologist is to put the weather in context for the public. In this case, meteorologists should be communicating how UNusual March was but how USUAL this current weather is.

This blog post wouldn't be complete without my once a year hail vs. sleet rant (one of my biggest pet peeves as a meteorologist, along with using relative humidity instead of dew point to describe how sticky it feels outside--I'll save that argument for a different time).

I saw/heard many comments today, including from the official Penn State Facebook page, that it was hailing! I mean... like oh my god it's totally hailing outside. There must, like, definitely be tornado nearby.

Now I'm not going to condemn and put all the blame on the public for being so ill-informed because the fact that so many people don't know the difference between hail and sleet is partially the fault of meteorologists. We need to do a better job educating the public.

In any event, NO ONE saw hail today (in State College)--if you live in Texas you would beg to differ I bet :) What fell from the heavens today was sleet, or graupel (pronounced GRAW-pull), or ice pellets. Basically, you were experiencing partially melted and then re-frozen snowflakes. Technically there is a slight difference between graupel and ice pellets but that's insignificant to this discussion.

Simply put, sleet occurs from late fall through early spring (in the Northeast) and generally falls during a snow storm or showery type of event.

Hail on the other hand is formed by convection (aka thunderstorms). Ice particles in a cloud fall toward the surface of the Earth and partially melt. Before they fall out of the cloud though, strong winds in a thunderstorm pick the ice back up and throw it back high into the atmosphere where it accumulates more water droplets (thus adding to its size and weight). Eventually, once the hail stone becomes too heavy for the winds to keep it airborne, it falls out of the cloud as hail.

A quick (but not fool proof or scientific) rule for determining between hail and sleet is that if it is thundering, it's hail. If not, it's sleet.

And I'm done...

Sleet, a generally late fall through early spring phenomenon (in the Northeast), is formed when snowflakes high up in the atmosphere fall through a layer of above freezing air and partially melt

Temperature and the Trayvon Martin Case

Weather often plays a role in criminal investigations and Mother Nature has a small tale to tell in the Trayvon Martin shooting.

Originally, it was reported that George Zimmerman said "f'in c**n" (referring to Trayvon Martin). This was what audio experts at some news organizations as well as many members of the public thought the audio recording revealed. However, the word after "f'in" is quite hard to make out. Recently, CNN reported they made a mistake and Zimmerman actually said "f'in cold." There have also been some other ideas and many people say its impossible to tell what he actually said.

If Zimmerman did indeed complain about how cold it was, we can use weather data from that night to attempt to validate his claim. A look at the weather information from Sanford International Airport (KSFB) which is a little over 5 miles (as the crow flies) from the shooting location.

Shooting Time: 7 PM February 26, 2012

Temperature at 6:53 PM (KSFB): 63 F

Average High for Feb 26: 72 F

Average Low for Feb 26: 47 F

Clearly 63 F isn't generally referred to as cold...especially when it's February...even in Florida. However, as Dr. Jon Nese always said...temperature is all relative. Some in Siberia thinks 70 is HOT while a resident of Texas thinks 100 is a walk in the park but might think 50 is cold. (Side note: In Disneyworld a few years ago in January it was about 50 degrees and sunny and all the Disney employees were wearing wool coats and earmuffs...I was quite comfortable in a light jacket--again, all relative.)

Back to the Trayvon Martin case...I think many of us would say 63 F wouldn't be a temperature at which you would exclaim..."F'in cold".  However, what was George Zimmerman used to at that time of night?

A look at high, low and 7pm temps for days leading up to the shooting...

Feb 23

High: 84

Low: 66

7 PM: 78

Feb 24

High: 89

Low: 64

7 PM: 80

Feb 25

High: 72

Low: 52

7 PM: 56

Clearly the 23rd and 24th were quite warm. Also, the dew points on the 23rd and 24th were in the 60s (making it feel more humid and uncomfortable). On the 25th, a strong cold front blasted through Florida dropping temps 10-15 degrees and dropping dew points into the 30s (making it feel much drier).  However by the evening of the 26th, temperatures were moderating and dew points were back up to the 60-degree mark.

We obviously don't know what Zimmerman's idea of "f'in cold" is but 63 is quite chilly compared to the 78 and 80 experienced on the 23rd and 24th BUT quite warm compared to the 56 experienced at 7PM on the 25th.

Looking at other factors, it was not windy at the time of the shooting (7 mph) but it was rainy and overcast--which could have added to the chill.

While the above does not to try prove or disprove that Zimmerman said something about the cold, it is definitely possible that he was used to the 23rd and 24th and the 63 degrees felt quite chilly. However, it was warmer than the night before, but on the other hand it was raining.

In the end, there is no conclusive answer here, just more insight into a terrible tragedy.

Data gathered from Weather Underground archive (KSFB airport info). Publicly avaiable at Wunderground.com. Also surface weather maps consulted from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

The Flowers Aren't Flowering and a Circus Tent...

Well, it's that time of year again. The worst two months of the year in sports are finally over (sans March Madness). The doldrums of February sporting events (I can't even watch SportsCenter in February) long in the rear-view mirror. As we flip the calendar to April, we can finally be excited about grass getting greener and the weather warming up (or in some cases the grass has been green for a month and temperatures have been warm since October--but what's a little global warming to shake things up a bit?)

There are two reasons to be excited for this week in sports: The Masters, and Opening Day.

Questions abound.

Can Tiger finish his comeback and win a major for the first time since he wrecked his car (and his life)? Will Hunter Mahan continue to impress? Can Rory McIlroy win his first major? Who will be victimized by the par-3 12th hole? Why aren't the flowers in bloom?

That's right, Augusta's flowers have gone green! Mother Nature and her extremely early spring can be thanked for that. The month of March finished over 8 degrees above average in Augusta. Temperatures broke 80-degrees almost daily in the second half of the month.

The unprecedented warmth caused the beautiful azaleas usually a staple of The Masters tradition to flower early. They are now green. So while the color we are so accustomed to seeing each year at Augusta will not be there in the foliage, I'm sure Ian Poulter's pants will still provide ample amounts of flashiness.

On to baseball...

What team will surprise the league this year? Will Mariano Rivera finally show his age? Who do I take as my final pick in my fantasy league draft? Will my fantasy team win it all this year?

The good news on the weather front (no pun intended) is that snow looks to be lacking for Opening Day. Good thing the Braves are on the road because it looks like a wet Thursday in Atlanta.

As far as the Yankees (because that's the only team that matters :) they play Friday under the big tent at the Trop. The circus is back...I mean baseball returns to SW Florida. Maybe someday they will finally finish that new stadium...but I won't hold my breath. For now, we still have to deal with the eye sore that is the Trop. At least the game won't be delayed with forecast of rain (unless the roof leaks or caves in).

I think I'll stop rambling for now. It's going to be another exciting season in baseball and golf and I hope to post a lot more in the next several months, especially regarding the Yanks.

Why It Didn't Snow Saturday Morning: A Few Thoughts

As light snow fell on New York City Saturday morning, amounting to little more than a coating on grassy surfaces, weather weenies across the area were disappointed yet again by another storm slipping by without any meaningful accumulation.

Some computer model runs proceeding the storm tantalized snow lover with several inches of fresh powder and many hoped the two pieces of atmospheric energy would come together to bring up to 8" of snow to the area. Alas, this was not to be and the benign winter across the Northeast continued.

As many weather enthusiasts mourn the loss of snow to the fish and other marine life, let's take a look at two things that should have been red flags as this storm developed.

Leading up to the storm, computer models continued to output varying amounts of liquid equivalent. Ranging anywhere from zero to over a half an inch, forecasters tried to form a consensus and decide on how much liquid would actually fall, translating it to snowfall amounts. In the end, most places from Philly to NYC saw around a tenth of an inch of liquid which amounted to only a trace of snowfall on grassy surfaces. While the bulk of precipitation did indeed go out to sea and the storm never fully organized in time to bring heavier snow to the area, one thing shown on the computer models should have been taken into account more heavily--the lack of precipitation in 6-hr periods. 

From what I remember, (and if I'm wrong, I hope someone will correct me) many of the forecast models showed 0.05-0.15 inches of precipitation in 6-hr time periods, sometimes amounting to around 0.30 inches in 12 hours. For the sake of simplicity, let's say 0.12" was forecast in 6 hours. That's 0.02"/hr which, with a standard 10:1 snowfall ratio is 0.2" of snow per hour. So with this hypothetical situation, you would expect 1.2" of snow in 6 hours. But weather is much more complicated than multiplying by 10. If you're getting snowfall at 0.2"/hr and the surface temperatures is 34, and the snow is falling during the day, you aren't going to get meaningful accumulation. Plain and simple. These were the conditions in NYC on Saturday morning and therefore, only a coating.

The minimal QPF shown on the models should have been a red flag in addition to the warm boundary layer. Although surface temperatures ended up being a bit colder than forecast, they still were not chilly enough to allow snow to stick to paved surfaces--the light snowfall rates contributed to this as well.

The second thing that should have been noticed on Thursday night, 24 hours before the snow began in the Northeast, was how poorly the models (especially the NAM) were handling the moisture associated with the southern shortwave. Unfortunately, I don't have the graphical images so bear with me for an explanation.

A little after midnight Thursday night (early Friday morning) rain was spreading into south central Louisiana. By 12z Friday, the rain was almost into Mississippi. The 0z run of the NAM 12-hr prog showed it DRY across ALL of Louisiana. Translation: the NAM was too slow right off the bat with the southern shortwave. What did the 0z NAM show in terms of snow? At least several inches for NYC with around a half inch of QPF. But this obviously had an extremely slim chance of happening as the NAM at 12 hrs was already too slow with the southern shortwave.

Why is this so important?

This storm hinged on the northern and southern pieces of energy interacting closely. With a faster southern system and I would argue slightly slower northern system, the storm never had a chance as of early morning Friday to come together in time to bring moderate snowfall to New York. For all intensive purposes, in hindsight, the snowstorm threat could have been cancelled at 2am Friday.

So we'll move into the second half of February still without a significant storm for New York City and weather weenies ready to tear down the message boards, praying, wishing for snow (and bashing others in the process--why can't we all just be friends and talk about the weather politely but with passion? That's a topic for another time though...).

A Closing White-Out: Joe Paterno Thoughts

I've been thinking all day of how to honor Joe Paterno. Trying to think of how to write something heartfelt, but not cliched. Something original, something that shows what he means to me.

In 1989, JoePa was quoted in the New York Times as saying, "what counts in sports is not the victory, but the magnificence of the struggle." This applies to all facets of life as well. It's not what you achieve that molds you, it's the path you take to get there--and Joe Paterno tried to show others the best path.

He molded men, taught them success with honor, made them believe in themselves.

While I never had the opportunity to meet Paterno, I had the privilege of sharing the Beaver Stadium field with him after each home game while I was in the Blue Band. I witnessed victory 400 and 409. Obviously unaware at the time, I witnessed his final game.

I will never forget the mark he left on me as a person. Hearing him speak for 5 years at pep rallies was inspiring. We were listening to a living legend tell stories, give us insight, and inspire us. He talked about growing up in Brooklyn. He spoke of telling President Nixon to "shove-it" when Penn State was passed over for the national championship. He spoke of good sportsmanship toward other teams. He told us not to "boo." He taught us to show class.

How do we remember his legacy? It most definitely isn't defined by the last 12 weeks of his life. Rather, it is shaped by 85 years of life. We remember all the football players he developed, all the men he helped develop. His generous donations to the university, to charity. I've heard numerous tidbits and quotes about and from JoePa--too many to recount here. But one in particular sticks in my mind. A friend of mine saw Joe walking around campus one day and said to Joe, "Have a good day, sir." Joe replied, "No son, you make it a good day."

In the end, Joe's life came to a close like a Shakespearean tragedy.

The epitome of the tragic hero, Joe had his flaws. He was not perfect, none of us are.

The tragic hero was a true Penn Stater and lived his life the way we should all live ours. He believed in the Penn State institution and all the good that is done in Happy Valley. We are one university which we show better than anyone else, especially when we wear white on Saturday's.

Saturday's will no longer be the same at Beaver Stadium. The fall chill and smell of the leaves will not be the same.

But it is somehow fitting that nature produced her most substantial white-out of the season a day preceding Joe's passing. And on the day of his passing, Beaver Stadium's lights lit-up the night sky, reflecting off the low cloud deck.

Illuminating the heavens...lighting the way home.

R.I.P. Joseph Vincent Paterno

I Am Not Ashamed: Thoughts on the Sandusky Scandal

In August 2007 I auditioned for the Penn State Blue Band. I barely made the cut.

For the next four years I had the honor of representing The Pennsylvania State University at numerous sporting events including three bowl games, a trip to Ohio State, and the basketball team's NCAA tournament appearance in Tucson.

Each time I put on the uniform I did so with pride and honor. Whether it was marching down University Drive on the way to Beaver Stadium or in Pasadena for the 2009 Rose Bowl, spectators cheered for the band and what we represented.  Even after losing to USC in the Rose Bowl, many Trojan fans told us how much they respected Penn State and the Blue Band.

Needless to say, I am shocked at the despicable actions alleged at members of the Penn State administration. If true, Curley and Schultz should be severely punished for covering-up such heinous actions. However, it is a shame that they have already been crucified in the court of public opinion. The media, nor many in the public seem to remember or care that our judicial system prides itself on the mantra "innocent until proven guilty."

We should all demand answers but do it in a professional and civil way that reflects well on the university. In the heat of the moment we all jump to conclusions and let emotions control our thoughts and words. Only reasoned logic and a thorough review of the facts will lead us to the final conclusions that will emerge in the future.

While public opinion of Penn State will no doubt suffer in the coming weeks, months, and years, we must unite as a university to show the world that We Are better than these few men. The actions of a few do not define the greatness that is Penn State.

From the philanthropy of THON to the fervor of our sports fans, Penn State touches the lives of millions of people across the earth. It is these events and experiences that do not make me ashamed to be a Penn State alum. I will continue to wear my Penn State pride on my sleeve no matter what transpires from the scandal. I am proud of what I gave to the university and what the university gave to me in my four years. I had the best four years of my life at Penn State and will continue to support the school as much as ever. The bond between Penn Staters will be tested as these events run their course. But what makes Penn State great is its ability to endure and persevere through hard times. Penn State will rise again, and the bond that solidifies our "We Are" cheer will grow stronger.

In the wake of these horrible events, we must stand together as a proud group of Penn State students, faculty, staff, and alumni and demonstrate that we truly live by our alma mater's lyrics.

May no act of ours bring shame
To one heart that loves thy name,
May our lives but swell thy fame,
Dear old State, dear old State. 

Post-Mortem: October 29th Snowstorm

**Note:  The contents and thoughts of this and any other post by me are mine personally and do not necessarily reflect the views, position, or forecasts of AccuWeather.**

After a historic snowstorm for anytime of year, let alone October, let's take a look at how my forecast turned out.

Snowfall Map

Courtesy of AccuWeather

Please see post below for my map.

Overall I think my forecast was above average. Let's break down the good and the not-so-good.

Good

• Nailed the western and northern edge of accumulating snow
• Very good forecast of gradient over Vermont and New Hampshire
• Good forecast of jackpot in NE PA and N NJ
• Verified the tight gradient just north of NYC (2" in CPK)
• Verified the tight gradient just north of BOS
• Pretty good forecast of 6+"
• Nailed the accumulating snow in NYC

Not-So-Good

• Underestimated snow totals in Berkshires and southern NH where jackpot was (25-35" in some spots!)
• Slightly too north/south oriented with my snow area, should have been a bit more SW/NE
• Overdone in N central PA; heaviest bands ended up just south and then shifted east meaning precip was too light over this area and accumulation was tough
• Did not forecast mountain enhancement across WV and SW PA
• Too close to the coast with accumulating snow

What We Learned

• Snow CAN accumulate in New York City in October under perfect circumstances. Many respected meteorologists argued that climatology said no snow would occur. While this was a good argument, this storm was so anomalous, the moisture so plentiful, and the dynamics so ridiculous, that the possibility had to be accounted for and in the end, it happened.
• It can thundersnow in Harrisburg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2YuPz3q1rU) in October. The convective bands that developed over the region were quite something.
• If the snow rates had been less, the accumulations would have been much less due to the warm boundary layer in late October. One of the biggest things that I think was underestimated were the snowfall rates and how that would play a role on accumulations. If it snows hard enough, it WILL accumulate, and the opposite is true which is why there is a void of heavy snow in N central PA.
• The power outages and downed trees were as bad if not worse than advertised by the media. Some people believed that it was being hyped. In the end, it was awful as thousands remain without power.

In general, I think this storm was very well forecasted less than 2 days before the event. Outside of 2 days, poor model consensus led many forecasters to believe this storm would head out to sea. In retrospect, the weather pattern favored more of a progressive and out to sea solution. However, everything came together at the exact right time to prevent that scenario from occurring.

Finally, this discussion would not be complete without giving major props to the European Model which nailed this storm from 5 days out with multiple runs of the same solution. It was not without its flaws though as it shifted east about 3 days away from the storm, leading to a brief eastward model consensus. From that point on, the trend was west, back to the original Euro idea.

Looking forward to a great winter season!